US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions Register for future Business Cycle announcements Statement of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee on the Determination of the Dates of Turning Points in the U.
CAMBRIDGE September 20, 2010 - The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday by conference call. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007 and the beginning of an expansion.
The Committee had to adapt the NBER definition, however, to reflect specific features of the euro area.
The CEPR Committee’s task is significantly different from that of the NBER.
See Methodology Does CEPR use a different approach to NBER?
The euro area groups together a set of different countries.
Although subject to a common monetary policy since 1999, they even now have heterogeneous institutions and policies.
The Committee does not have a fixed definition of economic activity.
It examines and compares the behavior of various measures of broad activity: real GDP measured on the product and income sides, economy-wide employment, and real income.
In determining that a trough occurred in June 2009, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity.